A quantitative model for software engineering trends

Latifa Ben Arfa Rabai, Yan Zhi Bai, Ali Mili

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


Many decision-makers in industry, government and academia routinely make decisions whose outcome depends on the evolution of software technology trends. Even though the stakes of these decisions are usually very high, decision makers routinely depend on expert opinions and qualitative assessments to model the evolution of software technology; both of these sources of decision-making information are subjective, are based on opinions rather than facts, and are prone to error. In this paper, we report on our ongoing work to build quantitative models of the evolution of software technology trends. In particular, we discuss how we took specific evolutionary models and merged them into a single (general-purpose) model. The original specific models are derived empirically using statistical methods on trend data we had collected over several years, and have been validated individually; in this paper we further validate the generic (general-purpose) model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)4993-5009
Number of pages17
JournalInformation sciences
Issue number22
StatePublished - Nov 15 2011

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Software
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Artificial Intelligence


  • Bottom up approach
  • Extrinsic factors
  • Historical trends
  • Intrinsic factors
  • Software technology trends
  • Successful trends


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