A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach

Allan Sacha Brun; Ching Pui Hung; Alexandre Fournier; Laurène Jouve; Olivier Talagrand; Antoine Strugarek; Soumitra Hazra; Alexander Kosovichev; Klaus Strassmeier; Moira Jardine

doi:10.1017/S1743921320003993

A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach

Allan Sacha Brun, Ching Pui Hung, Alexandre Fournier, Laurène Jouve, Olivier Talagrand, Antoine Strugarek, Soumitra Hazra, Alexander Kosovichev, Klaus Strassmeier, Moira Jardine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: The minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	138-146
Number of pages	9
Journal	Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743921320003993
State	Accepted/In press - 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Astronomy and Astrophysics
Space and Planetary Science

Keywords

11-yr cycle
Sun
data analysis
data assimilation
dynamo
solar cycle prediction

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10.1017/S1743921320003993

Cite this

@article{334d4220149042c4b8d56c34710ed283,

title = "A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach",

abstract = "Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: The minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.",

keywords = "11-yr cycle, Sun, data analysis, data assimilation, dynamo, solar cycle prediction",

author = "{Sacha Brun}, Allan and {Pui Hung}, Ching and Alexandre Fournier and Laur{\`e}ne Jouve and Olivier Talagrand and Antoine Strugarek and Soumitra Hazra and Alexander Kosovichev and Klaus Strassmeier and Moira Jardine",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 International Astronomical Union.",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.1017/S1743921320003993",

language = "English (US)",

pages = "138--146",

journal = "Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union",

issn = "1743-9213",

publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach

AU - Sacha Brun, Allan

AU - Pui Hung, Ching

AU - Fournier, Alexandre

AU - Jouve, Laurène

AU - Talagrand, Olivier

AU - Strugarek, Antoine

AU - Hazra, Soumitra

AU - Kosovichev, Alexander

AU - Strassmeier, Klaus

AU - Jardine, Moira

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: The minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.

AB - Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: The minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.

KW - 11-yr cycle

KW - Sun

KW - data analysis

KW - data assimilation

KW - dynamo

KW - solar cycle prediction

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U2 - 10.1017/S1743921320003993

DO - 10.1017/S1743921320003993

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85093985146

SN - 1743-9213

SP - 138

EP - 146

JO - Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union

JF - Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union

ER -

A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

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