A stochastic framework for solar irradiance forecasting using condition random field

Jin Xu, Shinjae Yoo, Dantong Yu, Hao Huang, Dong Huang, John Heiser, Paul Kalb

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Solar irradiance volatility is a major concern in integrating solar energy micro-grids to the mainstream energy power grid. Accounting for such fluctuations is challenging even with supplier coordination and smart-grid structure implementation. Short-term solar irradiance forecasting is one of the crucial components for maintaining a constant and reliable power output. We propose a novel stochastic solar prediction framework using Conditional Random Fields. The proposed model utilizes features extracted from both cloud images taken by Total Sky Imagers and historical statistics to synergistically reduce the prediction error by 25-40% in terms of MAE in 1-5 minute forecast experiments over the baseline methods.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAdvances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - 19th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2015, Proceedings
EditorsTu-Bao Ho, Hiroshi Motoda, Hiroshi Motoda, Ee-Peng Lim, Tru Cao, David Cheung, Zhi-Hua Zhou
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages511-524
Number of pages14
ISBN (Print)9783319180373
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015
Externally publishedYes
Event19th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2015 - Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Duration: May 19 2015May 22 2015

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume9077
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Other

Other19th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2015
CountryViet Nam
CityHo Chi Minh City
Period5/19/155/22/15

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • Computer Science(all)

Keywords

  • Conditional random field
  • Solar forecasting
  • Stochastic model

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