Active-region monitoring and flare forecasting: I. Data processing and first results

Peter T. Gallagher, Y. J. Moon, Haimin Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

138 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper discusses a near real-time approach to solar active-region monitoring and flare prediction using the Big Bear Solar Observatory Active Region Monitor (ARM). Every hour, ARM reads, calibrates, and analyses a variety of data including: full-disk Hα images from the Global Hα Network; EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); and full-disk magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). For the first time, magnetic gradient maps derived from GONG longitudinal magnetograms are now available on-line and are found to be a useful diagnostic of flare activity. ARM also includes a variety of active-region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center, such as up-to-date active-region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare-to-region identifications. Furthermore, we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)171-183
Number of pages13
JournalSolar Physics
Volume209
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2002

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Space and Planetary Science

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