Bayesian Multi-head Convolutional Neural Networks with Bahdanau Attention for Forecasting Daily Precipitation in Climate Change Monitoring

Firas Gerges, Michel C. Boufadel, Elie Bou-Zeid, Ankit Darekar, Hani Nassif, Jason T.L. Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are established numerical models for simulating multiple climate variables, decades into the future. GCMs produce such simulations at coarse resolution (100 to 600 km), making them inappropriate to monitor climate change at the local regional level. Downscaling approaches are usually adopted to infer the statistical relationship between the coarse simulations of GCMs and local observations and use the relationship to evaluate the simulations at a finer scale. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework for forecasting daily precipitation values via downscaling. Our framework, named Precipitation CNN or PCNN, employs multi-head convolutional neural networks (CNNs) followed by Bahdanau attention blocks and an uncertainty quantification component with Bayesian inference. We apply PCNN to downscale the daily precipitation above the New Jersey portion of the Hackensack-Passaic watershed. Experiments show that PCNN is suitable for this task, reproducing the daily variability of precipitation. Moreover, we produce local-scale precipitation projections for multiple periods into the future (up to year 2100).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMachine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases - European Conference, ECML PKDD 2022, Proceedings
EditorsMassih-Reza Amini, Stéphane Canu, Asja Fischer, Tias Guns, Petra Kralj Novak, Grigorios Tsoumakas
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages565-580
Number of pages16
ISBN (Print)9783031264184
DOIs
StatePublished - 2023
Event22nd Joint European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2022 - Grenoble, France
Duration: Sep 19 2022Sep 23 2022

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume13717 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference22nd Joint European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2022
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityGrenoble
Period9/19/229/23/22

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • General Computer Science

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Convolutional neural networks
  • Machine learning
  • Statistical downscaling

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