Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

Velma K. Lopez, Estee Y. Cramer, Robert Pagano, John M. Drake, Eamon B. O’Dea, Madeline Adee, Turgay Ayer, Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ozden O. Dalgic, Mary A. Ladd, Benjamin P. Linas, Peter P. Mueller, Jade Xiao, Johannes Bracher, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Yuxin Huang, Dasuni Jayawardena, Abdul H. KanjiKhoa Le, Anja Mühlemann, Jarad Niemi, Evan L. Ray, Ariane Stark, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Martha W. Zorn, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Teresa K. Yamana, Samuel R. Tarasewicz, Daniel J. Wilson, Sid Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steve Stage, Brad Suchoski, Lei Gao, Zhiling Gu, Myungjin Kim, Xinyi Li, Guannan Wang, Lily Wang, Yueying Wang, Shan Yu, Lauren Gardner, Sonia Jindal, Maximilian Marshall, Kristen Nixon, Juan Dent, Alison L. Hill, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C. Lee, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Justin Lessler, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Matt Kinsey, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Lauren Shin, Katharine Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Dean Karlen, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Jiang Bian, Wei Cao, Zhifeng Gao, Juan Lavista Ferres, Chaozhuo Li, Tie Yan Liu, Xing Xie, Shun Zhang, Shun Zheng, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Xinyue Xiong, Robert Walraven, Jinghui Chen, Quanquan Gu, Lingxiao Wang, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Difan Zou, Graham Casey Gibson, Daniel Sheldon, Ajitesh Srivastava, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Gursharn Kaur, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Lijing Wang, Pragati V. Prasad, Jo W. Walker, Alexander E. Webber, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Nicholas G. Reich, Michael A. Johansson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere1011200
JournalPLoS computational biology
Volume20
Issue number5 May
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Ecology
  • Molecular Biology
  • Genetics
  • Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics

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