Cola-GNN: Cross-location Attention based Graph Neural Networks for Long-term ILI Prediction

Songgaojun Deng, Shusen Wang, Huzefa Rangwala, Lijing Wang, Yue Ning

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

48 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI) is of prime importance to epidemiologists and health-care providers. Early prediction of epidemic outbreaks plays a pivotal role in disease intervention and control. Most existing work has either limited long-term prediction performance or fails to capture spatio-temporal dependencies in data. In this paper, we design a cross-location attention based graph neural network (Cola-GNN) for learning time series embeddings in long-term ILI predictions. We propose a graph message passing framework to combine graph structures (e.g., geolocations) and time-series features (e.g., temporal sequences) in a dynamic propagation process. We compare the proposed method with state-of-the-art statistical approaches and deep learning models. We conducted a set of extensive experiments on real-world epidemic-related datasets from the United States and Japan. The proposed method demonstrated strong predictive performance and leads to interpretable results for long-term epidemic predictions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationCIKM 2020 - Proceedings of the 29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery
Pages245-254
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781450368599
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 19 2020
Externally publishedYes
Event29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM 2020 - Virtual, Online, Ireland
Duration: Oct 19 2020Oct 23 2020

Publication series

NameInternational Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, Proceedings

Conference

Conference29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM 2020
Country/TerritoryIreland
CityVirtual, Online
Period10/19/2010/23/20

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Business, Management and Accounting
  • General Decision Sciences

Keywords

  • ILI prediction
  • dynamic graph neural network
  • spatial attention

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