TY - JOUR
T1 - Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City
AU - Fathi-Kazerooni, Sina
AU - Rojas-Cessa, Roberto
AU - Dong, Ziqian
AU - Umpaichitra, Vatcharapan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors
PY - 2021/1
Y1 - 2021/1
N2 - In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed by the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is more significant after considering incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from it. We extend the analysis to each individual NYC borough. We also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and cases. We also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths might have occurred.
AB - In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed by the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is more significant after considering incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from it. We extend the analysis to each individual NYC borough. We also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and cases. We also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths might have occurred.
KW - ARIMA
KW - COVID-19
KW - Long short-term memory
KW - New York city subway
KW - SARS-CoV-2
KW - Time-series analysis
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U2 - 10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.006
DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85099232392
SN - 2468-0427
VL - 6
SP - 183
EP - 194
JO - Infectious Disease Modelling
JF - Infectious Disease Modelling
ER -