Development of a probabilistic model to optimize disseminated real-time bus arrival information for pre-trip passengers

Steven I.Jy Chien, Sunil Kumar Daripally, Kitae Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations


In the advent of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), the total wait time of passengers for buses may be reduced by disseminating real-time bus arrival times for the next or series of buses to pre-trip passengers through various media (e.g., internet, mobile phones, and personal digital assistants). A probabilistic model is desirable and developed in this study, while realistic distributions of bus and passenger arrivals are considered. The disseminated bus arrival time is optimized by minimizing the total wait time incurred by pre-trip passengers, and its impact to the total wait time under both late and early bus arrival conditions is studied. Relations between the optimal disseminated bus arrival time and major model parameters, such as the mean and standard deviation of arrival times for buses and pre-trip passengers, are investigated. Analytical results are presented based on Normal and Lognormal distributions of bus arrivals and Gumbel distribution of pre-trip passenger arrivals at a designated stop. The developed methodology can be practically applied to any arrival distributions of buses and passengers.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)195-215
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Advanced Transportation
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2007

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Strategy and Management


  • ATIS
  • Arrival time
  • Bus
  • Pre-trip passengers
  • Service quality
  • Transit
  • Wait time


Dive into the research topics of 'Development of a probabilistic model to optimize disseminated real-time bus arrival information for pre-trip passengers'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this