@inproceedings{3da61cf3063744d9b1f4aba45307b755,
title = "Estimating a failure probability using a combination of variance-reduction techniques",
abstract = "Consider a system that is subjected to a random load and having a corresponding random capacity to withstand the load. The system fails when the load exceeds capacity, and we consider efficient simulation methods for estimating the failure probability. Our approaches employ various combinations of stratified sampling, Latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo. We construct asymptotically valid upper confidence bounds for the failure probability for each method considered. We present numerical results to evaluate the proposed techniques on a safety-analysis problem for nuclear power plants, and the simulation experiments show that some of our combined methods can greatly reduce variance.",
author = "Nakayama, {Marvin K.}",
year = "2016",
month = feb,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1109/WSC.2015.7408201",
language = "English (US)",
series = "Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference",
publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",
pages = "621--632",
booktitle = "2015 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2015",
address = "United States",
note = "Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2015 ; Conference date: 06-12-2015 Through 09-12-2015",
}