TY - GEN
T1 - Phase-Informed Bayesian Ensemble Models Improve Performance of COVID-19 Forecasts
AU - Adiga, Aniruddha
AU - Kaur, Gursharn
AU - Wang, Lijing
AU - Hurt, Benjamin
AU - Porebski, Przemyslaw
AU - Venkatramanan, Srinivasan
AU - Lewis, Bryan
AU - Marathe, Madhav
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/6/27
Y1 - 2023/6/27
N2 - Despite hundreds of methods published in the literature, forecasting epidemic dynamics remains challenging yet important. The challenges stem from multiple sources, including: the need for timely data, co-evolution of epidemic dynamics with behavioral and immunological adaptations, and the evolution of new pathogen strains. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic highlighted these challenges; in an important article, Reich et al. did a comprehensive analysis highlighting many of these challenges. In this paper, we take another step in critically evaluating existing epidemic forecasting methods. Our methods are based on a simple yet crucial observation - epidemic dynamics go through a number of phases (waves). Armed with this understanding, we propose a modification to our deployed Bayesian ensembling case time series forecasting framework. We show that ensembling methods employing the phase information and using different weighting schemes for each phase can produce improved forecasts. We evaluate our proposed method with both the currently deployed model and the COVID-19 forecasthub models. The overall performance of the proposed model is consistent across the pandemic but more importantly, it is ranked third and first during two critical rapid growth phases in cases, regimes where the performance of most models from the CDC forecasting hub dropped significantly.
AB - Despite hundreds of methods published in the literature, forecasting epidemic dynamics remains challenging yet important. The challenges stem from multiple sources, including: the need for timely data, co-evolution of epidemic dynamics with behavioral and immunological adaptations, and the evolution of new pathogen strains. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic highlighted these challenges; in an important article, Reich et al. did a comprehensive analysis highlighting many of these challenges. In this paper, we take another step in critically evaluating existing epidemic forecasting methods. Our methods are based on a simple yet crucial observation - epidemic dynamics go through a number of phases (waves). Armed with this understanding, we propose a modification to our deployed Bayesian ensembling case time series forecasting framework. We show that ensembling methods employing the phase information and using different weighting schemes for each phase can produce improved forecasts. We evaluate our proposed method with both the currently deployed model and the COVID-19 forecasthub models. The overall performance of the proposed model is consistent across the pandemic but more importantly, it is ranked third and first during two critical rapid growth phases in cases, regimes where the performance of most models from the CDC forecasting hub dropped significantly.
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85165059821
T3 - Proceedings of the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2023
SP - 15647
EP - 15653
BT - AAAI-23 Special Programs, IAAI-23, EAAI-23, Student Papers and Demonstrations
A2 - Williams, Brian
A2 - Chen, Yiling
A2 - Neville, Jennifer
PB - AAAI press
T2 - 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2023
Y2 - 7 February 2023 through 14 February 2023
ER -