Abstract
As global energy demand continues to rise, accurate load forecasting has become increasingly crucial for power system operations. This study proposes a novel Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Fast Fourier Transform-inverted Transformer-Long Short-Term Memory (CEEMDAN-FFT-iTransformer-LSTM) methodological framework to address the challenges of component complexity and transient fluctuations in power load sequences. The framework initiates with CEEMDAN-based signal decomposition, which dissects the original load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) characterized by different temporal scales and frequencies, enabling differentiated processing of heterogeneous signal components. A subsequent application of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) extracts discriminative frequency-domain features, thereby enriching the feature space with spectral information. The architecture employs an iTransformer module with multi-head self-attention mechanisms to capture high-frequency patterns in the most volatile IMFs, while a gated recurrent unit (LSTM) specializes in modeling low-frequency components with longer temporal dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework achieves superior performance with an average 80% improvement in R-squared ((Formula presented.)), 40.1% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and 54.1% reduced Mean Squared Error (RMSE) compared to other models. This advancement provides a robust computational tool for power grid operators, enabling optimal resource dispatch through enhanced prediction accuracy to reduce operational costs. The demonstrated capability to resolve multi-scale temporal dynamics suggests potential extensions to other forecasting tasks in energy systems involving complex temporal patterns.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Article number | 2036 |
Journal | Electronics (Switzerland) |
Volume | 14 |
Issue number | 10 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - May 2025 |
Externally published | Yes |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Control and Systems Engineering
- Signal Processing
- Hardware and Architecture
- Computer Networks and Communications
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Keywords
- CEEMDAN
- FFT
- LSTM
- iTransformer
- power prediction
- signal decomposition
- smart grid analytics
- time series