@article{dc48c38916fa4d5095fef61c95c3a23e,
title = "Prediction of solar cycle 25: A non-linear approach",
abstract = "Predicting the solar activity is an important task for space weather and solar physics. There are various approaches to predict the solar activity and these predictions are used in various areas such as planning space missions, approximating the mechanism of solar dynamo, etc. In this paper, a non-linear prediction algorithm based on delay-time and phase space reconstruction is used to forecast the maximum of Solar Cycle 25. Apart from embedding dimension and delay-time which are the key parameters of such methods, we further found a new parameter (starting point) that should be taken into account to get better solar cycle predictions. This method was tested on last five solar cycles and the results are quite acceptable. We predicted that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 will be at the year 2023.2 ± 1.1 with a peak sunspot number of 154 ± 12. Our results are compared with other available predictions.",
keywords = "Chaos, Methods: data analysis, Methods: numerical, Sun: activity, Sunspots",
author = "V. Sarp and A. Kilcik and Vasyl Yurchyshyn and Rozelot, {J. P.} and A. Ozguc",
note = "Funding Information: The SSN data used in this study were taken from the Solar Influences Data analysis Center (Brussels) of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical data analysis Services (SIDC)-Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO). This work, which is a part of the Master of Science thesis of Volkan Sarp, was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University (Turkey) by the Project of FBA-2018-3158. Vasyl Yurchyshyn acknowledges support from Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) FA9550-15-1-0322, National Science Foundation (NSF) AST-1614457, and AGS-1821294 grants. Funding Information: The SSN data used in this study were taken from the Solar Influences Data analysis Center (Brussels) of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical data analysis Services (SIDC)-Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO). This work, which is a part of theMaster of Science thesis of Volkan Sarp, was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University (Turkey) by the Project of FBA-2018-3158. Vasyl Yurchyshyn acknowledges support from Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) FA9550-15-1-0322, National Science Foundation (NSF) AST-1614457, and AGS-1821294 grants. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.",
year = "2018",
month = dec,
day = "11",
doi = "10.1093/mnras/sty2470",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "481",
pages = "2981--2985",
journal = "Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society",
issn = "0035-8711",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "3",
}