The cognitive and mathematical foundations of analytic epidemiology

Yingxu Wang, Kostas N. Plataniotis, Jane Z. Wang, Ming Hou, Menchu Zhou, Newton Howard, Jun Peng, Runhe Huang, Shushma Patel, Du Zhang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Analytic epidemiology is a transdisciplinary study on the cognitive, theoretical, and mathematical models of COVID-19 and other contagious diseases. It is recognized that analytic epidemiology may be better studied by big data explorations at the macro level rather than merely biological analyses at the micro level in order to not lose the forest for the trees. This paper presents a basic research on analytic epidemiology underpinned by sciences of cognition, computer, big data, information, AI, mathematics, epidemiology, and systems. It introduces a novel Causal Probability Theory (CPT) for explaining the Dynamic Pandemic Transmission Model (DPTM) of analytic epidemiology. It reveals how the fundamental reproductive rate (Ro) may be rigorously calibrated based on big data of COVID-19. A theoretical framework of analytic epidemiology is developed to elaborating the insights of pandemic mechanisms in general and COVID-19 in particular. Robust and accurate predictions on key attributes of COVID-19, including Ro(t), forecasted infectives/resources, and the expected date of pandemic termination, are derived via rigorous experiments on worldwide big data of epidemiology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of 2020 IEEE 19th International Conference on Cognitive Informatics and Cognitive Computing, ICCI*CC 2020
EditorsYingxu Wang, Ning Ge, Jianhua Lu, Xiaoming Tao, Paolo Soda, Newton Howard, Bernard Widrow, Jerome Feldman
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages6-14
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9781728195940
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 26 2020
Event19th IEEE International Conference on Cognitive Informatics and Cognitive Computing, ICCI*CC 2020 - Beijing, China
Duration: Sep 26 2020Sep 28 2020

Publication series

NameProceedings of 2020 IEEE 19th International Conference on Cognitive Informatics and Cognitive Computing, ICCI*CC 2020

Conference

Conference19th IEEE International Conference on Cognitive Informatics and Cognitive Computing, ICCI*CC 2020
Country/TerritoryChina
CityBeijing
Period9/26/209/28/20

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Cognitive Neuroscience

Keywords

  • Analytic epidemiology
  • Big data experiments
  • Cognitive algorithms
  • Cognitive informatics
  • Cognitive pandemic models
  • COVID-19
  • Infectious transmission models
  • R0

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