The Prediction of Bus Arrival Times with Link-based Artificial Neural Networks

Yuqing Ding, I Jy Chien

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Transit operations are disturbed frequently by stochastic traffic variations and ridership, which may deteriorate schedule/headway adherence thus lengthen passenger wait times. Providing accurate and accessible information on transit vehicle arrival times is critical to improve transit service quality. In this study, a link-based artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for predicting bus arrival times in real-time by accumulating travel times on all traversed links between stops. The accuracy of the ANN model is assessed through simulating NJ Transit Route #39 and conducting reliability analysis for predicted bus arrival times. The results show that the model performs well especially with fewer intersections between stops. The study suggests another type of prediction model- stop-based ANN model, which is anticipated to adapt to variation in traffic conditions between stops with more intersections. The study provides an efficient computer program that can be used to integrate and evaluate innovative models (e.g., ANN prediction models) and strategies for promoting service quality.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Fifth Joint Conference on Information Sciences, JCIS 2000, Volume 1
EditorsP.P. Wang, P.P. Wang
Pages730-733
Number of pages4
Edition1
StatePublished - Dec 1 2000
EventProceedings of the Fifth Joint Conference on Information Sciences, JCIS 2000 - Atlantic City, NJ, United States
Duration: Feb 27 2000Mar 3 2000

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Joint Conference on Information Sciences
Number1
Volume5

Other

OtherProceedings of the Fifth Joint Conference on Information Sciences, JCIS 2000
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAtlantic City, NJ
Period2/27/003/3/00

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computer Science(all)

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