What is the benefit of including uncertainty in transmission planning? A WECC case study

Benjamin F. Hobbs, Saamrat Kasina, Qingyu Xu, Sang Woo Park, Jasmine Ouyang, Jonathan L. Ho, Pearl E. Donohoo-Vallett

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The electricity industry has undergone a series of radical economic, policy, and technology changes over the past several decades. More changes are to come, to be sure, but their nature and magnitude is highly uncertain. Such changes in market fundamentals profoundly impact the economic value of transmission. This paper quantifies the economic value of stochastic programming for transmission planning over a multidecadal time horizon, considering how generation investment reacts to network reinforcements and how the grid can be adapted later on as circumstances change. The economic value is the difference between the probability-weighted present worth of cost of (1) a stochastic model that chooses first-stage (through 2024) lines to minimize that cost and (2) a stochastic model whose 2024 lines are constrained to be those that were chosen by a suboptimal process, such as deterministic decision making. Even considering a small number of scenarios can drastically improve solutions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 49th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2016
EditorsRalph H. Sprague, Tung X. Bui
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages2364-2371
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9780769556703
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 7 2016
Externally publishedYes
Event49th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2016 - Koloa, United States
Duration: Jan 5 2016Jan 8 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
Volume2016-March
ISSN (Print)1530-1605

Conference

Conference49th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityKoloa
Period1/5/161/8/16

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Engineering

Keywords

  • Electricity transmission
  • Risk management
  • Stochastic optimization
  • Utility planning

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'What is the benefit of including uncertainty in transmission planning? A WECC case study'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this